Ecological Threat Report

It is the report on the most recent and respected scientific research on population growth, water stress, food insecurity, droughts, floods, cyclones, and rising temperature. It is published by Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP).

Important finding in report

The main finding from the ETR 2021 is that a cyclic relationship exists between ecological degradation and conflict. It is a vicious cycle, whereby degradation of resources leads to conflict, leading to further resource degradation. Underlining the severity of the finding, the number of malnourished people has been steadily rising since 2016 and is forecast to rise by 343 million people by 2050, creating another driver for conflict.

Mass displacement

The ETR has found that more than 1.26 billion people live in 30 hotspot countries, suffering from both extreme ecological risk and low levels of resilience. These countries are least likely to be able to mitigate and adapt to new ecological threats, which is likely to cause mass displacement.

Food insecurity

Global food insecurity has increased by 44% since 2014, affecting 30.4 % of the world's population in 2020, and is likely to rise further. By 2050, the global demand for food is expected to increase by 50%.

Water stress

The ETR reveals that by 2040 over 5.4 billion people will live in countries facing extreme water stress. Lebanon and Jordan are the countries most at risk.

Sub-Saharan Africa has the most countries with the lowest levels of social resilience combined with the highest population growth. 70% of its population suffer from inadequate access to safely managed water, which will be compounded by high population growth.